Should the US Take Dramatic Action in Iran?

Victor Davis Hanson has a theory that Iran has a dangerous strategy for America’s midterm election. The Trump administration has said seven or eight times that a deal with Iran is close. Each time, Iran denies that there is a deal, lied about being close to an agreement, or start launching missiles at their Middle East neighbors. 

However, “this time, people like [Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent and [State Secretary] Marco Rubio confirmed [President] Donald Trump’s optimism.” Why are we doing this over and over again? Because “Each side has a position.”

America wants to get the unpopular war over before the midterm election, so Iran wants to talk, talk, talk and negotiate, negotiate, negotiate but continue to launch missiles. They are willing to do anything to prolong the war because they think that the war will give them (Iran) leverage in the negotiations.

The Iranian actions make Trump and his administration angry, so they start launching missiles and dropping bombs. The Iranians get paranoid about being hit hard and want to talk, negotiate, and continue going through cycles, hoping to gain more leverage.

And what is our strategy? Why does Donald Trump put up with it? He has a strategy too, that while they’re talk, talk, talking and they’re breaking their talk, they’re getting poorer. We did not lift the sanctions. We did not lift the embargo. We did not cancel their bank accounts. We have de-banked them, and they have a blockade around them every day. They’re losing $400 million to $500 million a day. They talk all they want, but the facts on the ground show that they’re going broke.

So, the Trump administration’s attitude is, as long as we’re not conducting a full-scale war, and the American people don’t think we’re at war, and as long as we’re negotiating, we’ll negotiate till hell freezes over.

And we don’t really care because we’re winning every single day. They are getting poorer and poorer to the point where they’re either going to implode, there’s going to be a revolution in the streets, or they’re going to collapse and agree to it.

Now, that strategy is pretty smart, but it depends, from the American point of view, on one important thing. As they get to the midterms and Iran sees that while it has increased the unpopularity of the war, and as it has raised the price of gas and it has created global uncertainty, it still has not been able to ensure that Donald Trump will lose the midterms.

So, they need some dramatic event to remind the American people they’re still at war and the price of gas will get higher and the Europeans and our Asian friends will be angrier at us. What will that mean?

I would imagine that we will have a late October surprise. Right before the elections, they will try to do something dramatic. Empty their last missiles, hit the Gulf, attack Israel, try to go after a carrier. Anything that would remind the Americans that the war was not winding down, but with this last gasp, sort of like the German Battle of the Bulge, the Ardennes Offensive, where they marshaled all of their final resources and tried to stage a dramatic counteroffensive to remind the Allies they still could lose this war and they should negotiate, or something to that effect.

So, what does that leave us? I think the Trump administration should keep talking, keep all the sanctions and blockades, keep them on. But because Iran will probably do something dramatic, they should do something dramatic. In other words, if they have a list of targets, command and control, dual-use facilities, missile inventories and caches, and they think Pickaxe Mountain might be vulnerable, they could actually do some damage there, they should do it all and keep talking and get this dramatic element out of the way before the midterms so that Iran would be substantially reduced in its nuclear industrial military capability.

It already is, but try to preempt them and hit them very, very hard, and then keep talking. And then the American people will see they’re getting more and more desperate. But don’t be reactive because, trust us, they are going to try something dramatic to bring home the idea [that] the war is not over, and they’re not defeated, and gas will go up.

            But if you do something dramatic now and keep talking, you may hasten or accelerate the pace                 of negotiations, i.e., the pace at which Iran is losing and is going absolutely broke. And that                     could happen faster than we anticipate, and there’s at least an outside chance that they will be in             a far, far weaker place by the midterm elections in 83 days than they are now.