Are Caravans in Mexico Threatening to U.S. Sovereignty?

The liberty principle for this Freedom Friday concerns national sovereignty – the ability of a state to govern itself. This ability includes the authority to decide who enters the nation. This topic is back in the news because a migrant caravan left Honduras with plans to travel to the southern border of the United States.

In his article, Todd Bensman explained that the aspirations of the caravan ended soon after it crossed into Mexico. He continued with the following information. 

Mexico’s Policy of Controlled Dispersal

My assessment about Mexican caravans is based on experience traveling with the old rebel-style migrant caravans that aimed to crash the border back in 2018 and 2019 and the very new and different escorted transit caravans forming now.

I discovered these during a field research trip to Tapachula City just north of the Guatemala border in November 2024. The city of 400,000 is a major waystation and chokepoint on the Latin American migration trail exiting Guatemala.

Border hawk Trump had just been elected president, but open-borders dove President Joe Biden was still in office. Thousands of migrants in Tapachula were forming caravans and heading north, prompting American commentators to sound the alarm that the caravans intended to breach the U.S. border before Trump took office. I joined one of about a thousand north of Tapachula.

I was surprised to learn that the pundits were wrong.

The Mexican government was allowing these caravans to form so that its military and state police could inexpensively transfer them out of Tapachula and into other southern Mexican cities. The government scheme was (and still is) intended to relieve a growing humanitarian crisis in Tapachula, where shortages of work, food, and shelter had become critical. What I saw was a purposeful, government-controlled dispersal operation.

Influenced by Washington Policies

Why would Mexico volunteer to do any of this in the fourth year of Biden’s historic mass migration crisis when its central government under President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador had let millions move on through largely unchecked?

The little-known answer is that, in December 2023 as I fully reported then, Biden’s emissaries initiated a quiet deal to have Mexico reduce the incoming U.S. border crowds because the social media video looked terrible for Democrats running in the 2024 presidential election campaign.

The simpatico progressive liberal Obrador, wanting a Democrat president, deployed 32,000 troops to block all roads leading out of Tapachula and southern states like Chiapas. Next, Mexico began aggressive, sustained roundups of undocumented foreign nationals in Mexican cities and towns along its northern border with the U.S. from Tijuana to Matamoros.

The soldiers and police forced tens of thousands from Mexico’s north onto jets and buses and shipped them to the Tapachula while thousands a day were still arriving from Guatemala.

Trump won the election in large part on Biden’s open border and, once inaugurated, demanded that Mexico’s new President Claudia Sheinbaum, also a progressive liberal, continue the blockades and border sweeps under threat of devastating trade tariffs. 

How It Works

To prevent a humanitarian disaster and relieve Tapachula’s misery, the Sheinbaum government initially handed out “transit slips” and brought in buses to transport migrants to other Chiapas State cities and as far north as Mexico City. But demand outstripped the bus supply, so officials defaulted to the cheaper escorted foot caravans.

Whereas the caravans of old would violently break through security roadblocks, the Mexican military and police would surround this new kind of caravan in the front, back and all along its length and protect the marchers from predatory criminals. The security forces would gently direct them to turn down this or that road fork. Then at destinations, the security forces would deliver the compliant marchers to aid organizations and shelters and block them from further movement north.

While the many walkers I interviewed in late 2024 said sure they’d love to enter the United States someday, all told me they fully understood that Mexico’s government was to simply move them to other southern Mexican towns offering more work and sustenance while they waited for work and residency permits. The police and soldiers all confirmed the intercity transfer caravan policy and that it was a relatively new policy.

What to Look For

The Fey Esperanza caravan was hardly the first, but it attracted significant U.S. media attention because a major U.S. midterm election campaign is underway. In 2025 and so far in 2026, Mexico escorted at least another dozen intercity transit caravans to southern Mexican cities that drew no similar American media attention.

The telltale clue that these and the Fey Esperanza were controlled dispersal caravans not heading to the U.S. border: the Mexican security escorts.

A lot of Americans would not have known which kind of caravan they were seeing from video and naturally presumed it was enroute to the U.S. border.

Indeed, the transit caravan was rapidly disintegrating during Oct. 3-4 weekend as per the routine. The Trump administration was correct to noisily telegraph to Sheinbaum that she cannot let caravans reach the U.S. border and that migrants in them would face a tough confrontation if she let them through.

The article concluded that the caravans would continue because immigrants are still moving from Guatemala to Mexico, and Mexican security forces are still moving immigrants from the north and sending them south. However, Trump’s tariff threats against Mexico force Mexico to work with the United States to keep caravans away from the border.

Bensman says, “All bets are off once Trump leaves office in January 2029, no matter if a Republican or Democrat takes his spot. Look for caravans that might try their luck in the months before or after January 2029. Those will not be benign.”