Who Is Elise Stefanik?

My VIP for this week is Elise Stefanik, current Republican Representative from New York as well as candidate for governor of New York. If elected, she would be “the first Republican governor of New York in 20 years,” according to George Caldwell and Jacob Adams in their article published at The Daily Signal. 

Stefanik has been in Congress for a decade, a time period where she has held leadership positions. Therefore, she is “making a big political bet” in a state that is dominated by Democrats. Caldwell and Adams shared the following information about Stefanik.

“[Gov.] Kathy Hochul has a record and has led single-party Democrat rule, making it the most unaffordable state in the nation,” Stefanik, an Upstate New Yorker, says in an early attack ad released Friday against the state’s incumbent Democrat governor. “We have the highest taxes, the highest energy prices, the highest utility princes, highest proceri prices, and rent that continues to skyrocket.” …

“I do think a Republican can win in New York,” New York-based Republican strategist Chapin Fay told The Daily Signal. “The path to victory runs squarely through New York City. There are not enough Republican votes on Long Island and upstate to ignore New York City.”

Fay explained that the “old conventional wisdom” is that a Republican needs 30% of the vote in New York City to win the gubernatorial race.

In 2022, however, Republican New York gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin, now EPA commissioner under President Donald Trump, won almost exactly 30% of the New York City vote in 2022 and still lost – not to mention that New York City just elected Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed socialist, to be the city’s next mayor.

Nevertheless, a recent poll suggests Stefanik can mount a real challenge to Hochul in 2026 with 46% of voters favoring Hochul, compared to 43% for Stefanik, which is within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error.

Fay’s suggestion for Republicans? Target voters who supported former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the recent mayoral election.

“I would be looking at the Democrats who voted for Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayoral election, I would be hyper-focused on that group of people,” Fay said. Cuomo won 41.6% of the vote in New York City, with Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa winning 7.1%.

John McLaughlin is a New York-based veteran of Republican political strategy and polling. He has done polling for a number of New York campaigns, as well as for Trump’s presidential bids.

While he would favor Bruce Blakeman – whom he just helped reelect as Nassau County executive – over Stefanik as a Republican gubernatorial candidate, he says it is entirely in the cards that a Republican could win the state.

“When Republicans win in New York, it’s when the Democrats have failed, and they have clearly failed egregiously, so that a Republican can win. But it’s still a very tough race,” McLaughlin said. “Even when Hochul might have a 25 to 30% unfavorable rating of disapproval among Democrats, it’s still a very tough race.” …